Posted By: Michael Sweeney
Nov. 3, 2009
Just a quick (well, kinda quick, anyway – it ended up expanding) piece on this off-off-Election Day, summing up the three most interesting races to watch today…
As Tyler and I covered fairly extensively on the radio show yesterday, it looks like the Republican Bob McDonnell will (fairly easily) win as VA Governor…NJ Governor Jon Corzine – after starting off in a fairly deep, unpopular hole – may well pull off a close comeback win over challenger Chris Christie…and, in the most fascinating, potentially-far-reaching election today – ironically, since it is a "mere" local race – no matter WHO wins in the NY 23rd District special election, it may signal an important victory (with perhaps ongoing national repercussions) for Democrats…A little more on each of these below...
Virginia: Creigh Deeds pulled off a great upset Dem primary win over the money (and longtime Clinton-backing) of Terry McAuliffe (much to our appreciation here at The Stonecipher Report; we – especially Tyler – give former DNC Chairman McAuliffe the big middle-finger salute)…but, unfortunately, that moment – back in June – was probably the highlight of Deeds’ campaign. From then on, the trends separating Deeds and McDonnell (who had previously fought a few-hundred-vote-apart battle for VA Attorney General) slowly and unchangingly widened. The bottom line was that, even in solidly "purple" VA (with 2 Democratic Senators and the last 2 Governors being Dems, too – PLUS the historic (first for the Dems since ’64) Obama victory there in ’08), the older, more conservative, and – frankly – whiter voters who are expected to come out for off-year voting are going to easily roll over the not-as-likely-mobilized younger, more diverse crowd that powered out for Obama last year. Thus…Bob McDonnell pulls out a key win for the otherwise-struggling national Republicans. Probably a bit of a blowout – let’s say somewhere around McDonnell 57%, Deeds 42%. Results: Pretty close - to what I predicted...NOT to each other...McDonnell 59%, Deeds 41%. Analysis: Not surprising - Deeds just never connected in the urban and suburban VA areas...and the older, more conservative off-year voters easily carried the day.
New Jersey: Former US Senator and one-term Governor Jon Corzine looked like toast as this battle started. Faced off against Republican (and former US Attorney for NJ) Chris Christie, nearly a generation younger than Corzine (heck, this guy is even younger than the rapidly aging ME) on his right…AND the Independent, environmental-group-backed Chris Daggett on his left (somewhat, anyway)…it definitely looked as if the generally unpopular Corzine was heading for "one and done" as the Orange State Chief Exec.
Except that (as the campaign ground along): A) Christie has run a bit more of a stumbling campaign; B) Daggett has been stuck around 10% – and seemed to be taking as many votes away from Christie as he was from Corzine; C) Corzine has practically stapled himself to President Obama and his image, picture, policies, and – whenever possible – his actual physical personage; and D) Corzine has seemed to better keep his campaign focused and on-message (while Christie’s main message seemed to perhaps boil down to "I’m not Corzine").
Some prognosticators that I respect – especially Nate Silver on fivethirtyeight.com – are calling it to be a fairly close win for Christie…but I feel that Corzine ends up pulling it out…let’s call it (perhaps) about a final score of Corzine 46%, Christie 44%, and Daggett 8%. Results: Wrong winner (I suppose I WANTED Corzine to win, and may have let that tip my close call), but I was not far off on the total numbers...Christie 49%, Corzine 45%, Daggett 6%. Analysis: Basically, the Daggett support slipped enough and most of it went to Christie. This was more of an anti-Corzine vote rather than a pro-Christie one (or even an anti-Dem or anti-Obama one).
New York 23rd Congressional District: Now, THIS ONE is definitely (multi-level) fun! The quick background: The longtime Republican district’s former Representative, John McHugh, was appointed Secretary of the Army by President Obama (who also significantly carried the district in ’08). For the special election to fill the seat, the area’s respective party personnel selected their candidates (there was no primary election) – on the GOP side, the already-serving State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (a moderate – perhaps even Liberal – Republican), and, for the Dems, political newcomer (and also fairly moderate – perhaps even slightly to the right of Scozzafava on some issues) Bill Owens. Fair enough…until ANOTHER outsider, businessman Doug Hoffman, entered the race under the Conservative Party banner. (And, speaking of "outsiders," Hoffman does not even live within the District…although he DOES promise to move into it if he wins the election.) Scozzafava was a proven vote-getter in the area…Owens was a definite underdog, but was getting attention (and money) from national Democrats…and the suddenly-hot Hoffman picked up endorsements from such prominent GOP figures as Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Dick Armey, and others (who mostly dismissed Scozzafava as a too-Liberal "RINO" – "Republican in Name Only").
Right away, the lines of battle were drawn – the local career-long Republican vs. the carpetbagging, semi-symbolic Conservative challenger, backed by well-known names (and pouring-in dough)…plus, over off to the side, the probably-wouldn’t-have-had-much-of-a-chance-in-a-heads-up-race-against-EITHER-a-Repub-or-a-Conservative Democrat Owens. The three candidates were all pretty evenly splitting the vote, all polling in the 30% (or in the high 20s) range …but none of them wholly breaking out. Then, as the "RINO" and "Liberal Republican" drumbeat hammered on (even though it seemed to – pretty accurately – represent the mood and desires of most of the district’s voters), Scozzafava’s support started to erode – then quickly plummeted over the past few weeks of the fall campaign.
Even so…it came as a fairly stunning surprise over the weekend – just days before the election – when Scozzafava, noting the dropping poll numbers and the mounting costs to keep up what appeared to be a certainly-losing effort, announced that she was quitting the race. AND THEN, the next day, she – perhaps also surprisingly – formally announced an endorsement of her Democratic opponent, Bill Owens. (Although it certainly cannot be denied that Scozzafava and Owen are closer on many issues than either of them would be to most of Hoffman’s stands.) She even recorded a "robo-call" endorsement encouragement telephone ad that the Owens campaign aggressively used over the last days of the campaign.
Wow – what a strange unfolding of events! Right now, I can see this election going one of three ways (with the first two being perhaps fairly equal 45% chances…and the last one being a 10% long shot): 1) A close win for Owens (probably about Owens 47%, Hoffman 45%, and Scozzafava 8% (her name will still appear on the ballots); 2) A close win for Hoffman (call it perhaps Hoffman 48%, Owens 47%, and Scozzafava 5%); or 3) A fairly big win for Owens (let’s say something like Owens 53%, Hoffman 44%, and Scozzafava 3%). Results: Pretty damned close to my #1 scenario - Owens 49%, Hoffman 45%, Scozzafava 6%. Analysis: The successful (for Dems) first shot over the bow in the coming Republican-Conservative Civil War (as I further detail below)...and, of course, added together, the Hoffman-Conservative / Scozzafava-Republican votes could have (closely) won the district, so...I guess that Palin, Thompson, Pawlenty, Armey, et al, shoulda just shut up, stayed out, and listened to Newt (more on this below, too)...
However, no matter what happens, this looks like a completely win-win scenario for the national Democratic Party…and here’s why…
Even if Hoffman, the Conservative, wins, hey, it’s a century-plus-long Republican district anyway…the Dems still have a 60% majority in the House (remember: he would "just" be replacing Republican Rep. McHugh)…and the Dem candidate (at least) made a good, close showing. If Owens wins, it’s a bipartisan triumph (remember: with the backing of Republican Scozzafava) for the modern, true "Big Tent" Democratic party and yet another killing-off of a Northeastern Republican. PLUS – and perhaps even more importantly (and ongoingly impactful) – win or lose, the still-successful (cuz, even if he loses to Owens, he sure beat Scozzafava’s hide outta this race) Hoffman / Conservative insurrection against more moderate Republicans will embolden and encourage further "true" Conservative challenges and revolts against the damaged, perhaps-death-spiraling Republican brand. (Another 538.com plug – Nate’s also got a great piece up this week about the now and coming battle between the labels, brands, and philosophies of "Republican" and "Conservative"; he even ponders whether it might be the primely opportune time for the national party to actually dump its century-and-a-half old name…however, he also poses the negative possibility that, rather than Republicans finding themselves "rebranded" more popularly as Conservatives, that maybe the trying-to-strike-out-on-their-own Conservatives might get themselves weighed down and tarred by the semi-ruined (and still-shrinking) Republican brand…)
The thought of such considered and even attempted incursions may cheer the Limbaugh-and-Beck, tea party and birthers, FOX News crowd, who apparently want to A) First take back their opposition from the whiny, ineffectual McConnell-and-Boehner GOP; and then B) Try to take back "their" country from the majority-elected Dems and Obama. Hey, I say, go for it, you wacky Red Staters – frankly, if anything else can help guarantee the nearly 40 years of Democratic-heavy influence that James Carville and I (and others) have predicted that we could be on the verge of, I just can’t see it being as nearly as helpful (to us Liberals and Progressives) as the opposition party splintering into two (at least!) bickering, fighting right-ish-wing factions.
So…go ahead, Sarah Palin – seriously consider branching out under a "Conservative" label…and likely pulling a (even-less-successful) Ross Perot on your former GOP colleagues, splitting support and allowing the Dems to continue attracting 60% majorities. Hard to believe – at this point; at this decade-and-a-half-after-the-"Contract With America" date – that the balanced, thoughtful call about this came from former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who warned that this "Conservative" / "Republican" split is only going to likely lead to confusion, dissent, and potential Democratic victories. I sure hope A) That you’re right, Newt…and that B) They still do it anyway…
…Now, it’s time to start tuning in and refreshing up the early televised and online coverage and results. (God, wonks like us just LOVE election-result nights, even on few, minor-race nights like this one…)
Look for my regular posts here on The Stonecipher Report. (And, for a free subscription to my twice-weekly e-mail column on politics and pop-culture, "And, in the News…" send a note to: m_l_sweeney@hotmail.com)
