Gov. Quinn, Dem Opponent Hynes, GOPer McKenna Already Advertising
Plus, 4 Trends and 1 Fact That Will Likely Help Determine This Election’s Winner
Posted By: Michael Sweeney
Nov. 10, 2009
My brief discussion about this – via phone – with Tyler on Monday’s radio show reminded me that, with all the other things that have been going on lately, I perhaps haven’t covered this topic very much out here recently…(and, BTW, thanks to TR for doing almost all of the – unexpected; previously-unscheduled – on-air show solo this time around while I attended to an annoyingly delayed medical appointment). But, the Illinois 2010 election season is currently well underway, with – most notably – television ads already running (starting more than a year before the general election) for three of the most prominent of the candidates running to be IL Governor.
Now, it has not been a complete fog of lack of info on these guys out here – we’ve already covered (multiple times, in the case of the two Dems) these three gentlemen previously on TSR…but here’s a bit deeper look at the overall race. And who are those three likely-leading candidates? Current Gov. Pat Quinn (the Democrat who succeeded the nearly-infinitely corrupt (and distant from him) Rod Blagojevich back in January); his Dem primary challenger, state Comptroller Dan Hynes; and the perhaps-leading Republican (among about a half-dozen elephant candidates), businessman – and former state GOP Chairman – Andy McKenna.
…But, already in this many-miles-to-go race, several potentially important trends are emerging – plus one overwhelming fact that may well fully end up defining the contest. First, the trends…
- These guys all seem pretty dull. Oh, I absolutely like the esteemed populist Quinn – I’ve even pegged the longtime consumer activist and politician (in previous posts) as being the perhaps most "for the People" chief executive this state has had since John Peter Altgeld more than 100 years ago (who shortened his elective career by – quite mercifully and correctly – releasing and pardoning those then-yet-unexecuted accused (and arrested, convicted, and imprisoned) hanger-arounds who got caught up in the reaction to the notorious Haymarket bombing incident…one of the bravest political moves in the history of Illinois). But, neither he nor the boring-but-respectable Hynes or the fairly incompetent (scorecard for his tenure as head of the IL GOP: ZERO statewide electoral victories), yet nice-looking-in-an-expensive-suit McKenna are exactly stirring up any sort of excitement in a likely-still-quite-Obama-struck mass of voters. Of course, had the immensely (unstoppably?) popular state Attorney General Lisa Madigan opted to compete for Governor (as had been expected), there would be NO – zero, zip, nada – competitive primary OR general election contest for this office. She would’ve become Guv in an easy walkover. Instead, we’ve got two semi-solid, good-government guys – and one "Hey, maybe I could be Governor or something!" grey boor – running their dimmish, 30-watt personalities against each other. Advantage: Quinn…since, hey, after the imprisoned ex-Gov. George Ryan (and the probably-gonna-be-eventually-incarcerated Blago), a bit of populist semi-boredom ALREADY SITTING IN THE GOVERNOR’S MANSION looks like a potential plus.
- The field of Republican Gubernatorial candidates are not exactly "all-stars." As I’ve pointed out several times before, the last decade-or-so has not been deep-clover times for the Illinois Republican Party. They have not won a statewide election since 2002 (and it was just a single one even then)…and, really, the party’s only figure with possible statewide (instead of just certain regional or district) appeal is current Rep. Mark Kirk, who is running for the US Senate seat that President Obama won in 2004. All of this means that the names of such GOP Gubernatorial candidates as Bill Brady, Adam Andrzejewski (pretty sure I spelled that right this time!), Dan Proft, and Kirk Dillard are pretty much unknown factors to most voters in this state (even with Brady and Dillard being state Senators)…and that the two names that will likely float to the top are the already-widely-advertising McKenna – and the previously statewide-officeholding (as Attorney General) Jim Ryan. But…negatives for Ryan still exist – that his health will always be a question (he suffered from non-Hodgkin lymphoma more than a decade ago), that he lost to Blago (pretty largely, too – by about a quarter-million votes) in the 2002 Gov’s election, AND that he shares a last name (perhaps confusingly) with the unrelated Repubs George Ryan (again – who is IN PRISON) and Jack Ryan (who got blown out of the ’04 Senate race due to a sex scandal). It remains to be seen how all of this will end up turning out, but…right now it seems to be (even though he ran the party poorly during the past half-decade, setting up its current predicament)...Advantage: McKenna.
- The Blago "hangover" may not have much impact on either the primary or the general election. At this point, it is pretty well-observed in solid-Blue, home-o’-Obama Illinois that Blago was pretty unique (yes, as previously pointed out, the Guv elected before B-Rod is currently still in prison, but George Ryan was "just" a commonly corrupt pol…while the Serbian Haircut is in a category by himself)…and it will be difficult (and / or non-startingly unimpactful) for either Quinn or Hynes to tar each other with Blago connections (since they were BOTH also in statewide elective offices while B-Rod was running things into the ground (although neither one had much contact with or connection to the Guv)) OR for McKenna (or whoever ends up being the GOP nominee) to simply portray IL Democrats as any sort of "Party of Blagojevich" (since, of course, in IL it is also a "Party of…Obama, Durbin, Madigan, Daley, Schakowsky, Jackson Jr." and many other popular statewide and local politicians). Advantage: Whoever ends up as the Dem nominee (once again, probably Quinn), since, anti-incumbent-party off-year or not, IL IS a Blue state…and Blago is (thankfully!) long-gone from Springfield.
- Inexperienced politicians ain’t been doing so well in elections here recently. Jim Oberweis. Jack Ryan. Blair Hull. J. B. Pritzker. Ron Gidwitz. Paul Vallas. Dr. Steve Sauerberg. Even the never-been-elected-for-nuthin’-NOWHERE Alan Keyes. None of these businessmen, rich guys, or political gad-abouts (from EITHER party) have had any success in IL primaries or general elections over the last decade or so. Not surprisingly – hey, you don’t think we got plenty enough PROFESSIONAL politicians here in Chicago and Illinois? So, yet ANOTHER non-elective-officeholder (not even dogcatcher – cuz, of course, getting "elected" by a bunch of rich-ish old guys to run their state party does NOT count) attempting to make a statewide, huge-jump-up run for what would be his very first public office? Uh, good luck, Mr. McKenna…Advantage: NOT McKenna...anybody BUT McKenna.
…And, as for the single, perhaps most important and overwhelming fact that seems to be the key to the 2010 IL Gubernatorial contest? Well, at this point, it seems pretty clear that – unless he somehow makes some huge in-office screw-up over the next 12 months – the majority-Dem-voting IL public is ever-more likely to feel that the calming, never-suspect, populist straight-arrow Pat Quinn is deserving of a more-than-a-few-months shot at trying to straighten out the mess that the previous 11 years of Ryan-and-Blago has created here in the Land o’ Lincoln, Butkus, and Obama. And it’s just a considerable uphill path from there for either first Hynes and then McKenna (or Ryan or whoever) to try and sell the argument that ANOTHER change – after the early ’09 ousting of Blago – is needed in IL this soon. Unless something changes – like one of the opposing candidates catching particular fire with a suddenly-popular new issue – this looks like a potentially HUGE Advantage: Quinn…
Of course, there’s still a long way to go in this race – first, until the primaries in February and then the general election in 357 days…and I promise to keep an eye on it and report back to you about whatever slings and arrows we see being exchanged between the candidates. But, at this point, I do not think that we will see a different man sitting in the Springfield mansion in 2011 than we already have there now…
For more coverage of Illinois politics, look for my regular posts here on The Stonecipher Report. (And, for a free subscription to my twice-weekly e-mail column on politics and pop-culture, "And, in the News…" send a note to: m_l_sweeney@hotmail.com)
