Posted By: Michael Sweeney July 9, 2009 What?!? THAT’s what we’ve all been waiting for here in Illinois (and across the rest of the country)? "Just" another potential term as IL Attorney General for the state’s assumed political "Big Dog," Lisa Madigan? Huh? THAT’s what had all the other politicians in Illinois waiting and wondering what the state’s electoral 800 lb. gorilla was gonna do? Man…and we thought that AK’s Sarah Palin was a frustrating, complicated mess…
So, yes, you may have heard that, no, Madigan WON’T be running for the US Senate seat (formerly occupied by Barack Obama; currently being barely warmed by Roland "Jus’ Passin’ Through" Burris) from IL in 2010…NOR – as long expected – will she be competing for the IL Governor’s job up for election that same year. She is – instead – going to seek an additional term as state Attorney General. Uh, wha?
Yes, she’s still young – even younger (for example) than Palin is; she would "only" be 48 by the end of that third term as A.G. – so the future may still hold higher-up statewide runs for her, but…this is certainly surprising. The time seemed prime for her to make her move – and the rest of the pols in the state seemed to be holding their collective breaths, waiting to see what she would decide to do…
The cheering that you may be able to hear from whatever distance is the combined hearty "Hoo-rahs!" issuing forth from – take yer pick – the offices, homes, and random supporters of Gov. Pat Quinn, Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, Comptroller Dan Hynes, Rep. Mark Kirk, and famous political family member (and Merchandise Mart executive) Christopher Kennedy. The disappointed weeping you may ALSO be able to hear is likely coming from President Obama, his Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, his advisor David Axelrod, and the various upper-level strategists in the national Democratic Party.
You see, first of all, the party big-wigs definitely DO NOT want to eventually lose the President’s former Senate seat to the Republicans…and even though there is about ONLY ONE IL Republican with any statewide rep at this time…well, it happens to be the aforementioned Kirk, who has already raised a ton of dough, is very likely to go for the Senate seat, and who will likely get a TON of help from the Republican National Committee if it looks like he can break through and win the seat. (I currently figure his statewide vote ceiling is "only" about 47%...but if the Dems screw things up – or if an incomp Dem and an "Independent" end up splitting much of the center-left general election vote – that could end up being enough…) So, that is why (supposedly) the President (and all his men) told Madigan that they wanted her to run for the Senate seat, since she had polled strongly as the Dems’ best chance at winning (and holding) the seat.
Of course, she had long been expected to run for Governor – even while Blago was still fumblin’ and bumblin’ in the office – mostly because she had been raising local money (as opposed to the stricter-governed Federal money that would be needed to fund the Senate race) AND because of the general expectations regarding her two young, elementary-school-age daughters; Madigan was seen as preferring to stay in IL than go to Washington…and the since-complicated conflict between the temptations of the US Senate (and heeding the call of the President) and the expectations of her running for local office were supposed to be what was delaying this decision; she was expected to decide and announce which office she would seek by August.
…However, it can be fairly safely said that nearly NOBODY expected her to decide to merely stay put and seek to hold onto her A.G. office. It just doesn’t make much sense – unless she (AND – no doubt – her powerful, connected step-father, IL House Speaker and Dem Party big-wig Mike Madigan) thinks that the Governor’s race is doomed for a Dem in 2010 (stuck wearing the Blago shame and the Quinn shackles)…and, therefore, she still wanted to serve in-state, and figured holding her current office would be the best bet for now. However, not much polling sees the IL Governor’s office going to any of the second-rate (at best) Republicans that the completely crippled state party (remember: they currently hold ZERO statewide offices) expect to be battling for their party’s nomination. So…this is DEFINITELY a head-scratcher…
The settle-out over all of this is (most likely) as follows: A) Gov. Quinn sighs a huge sigh of relief…but will still likely face a primary challenge from at least one prominent Dem – probably state Comptroller Hynes (…and A1) The GOP nominates someone barely known, like one of the state Senators – Bill Brady or Kirk Dillard – who are running (and are at least less embarrassing than some of the other stampeding elephants already running, like Cicero-based hack and idiot Dan Proft)); B) The Dem Senate primary will boil down to Giannoulias vs. Kennedy (there will be other candidates – including perhaps even one more semi-known figure – but it will most likely come down to those two), with the winner being the favorite to win the seat…but NOT the overwhelming one that Madigan would have been (…and B1) Maybe even Sen. Burris will run, thinking he has a chance to actually win his first election in 20 years…but…even without Madigan in the primary race, he will still be lucky to break 15% in the Dem primary [BREAKING NEWS on Thursday - Burris is NOT expected to run for election in 2010; more coming on this later]); and C) Kirk’s fundraising and poll figures will continue to go up in the general election race for the IL Senate seat…and he will likely attract a GOP All-Star roster of endorsements and campaigners (for whatever that might be worth these days).
Of all the possible and expected outcomes, this one – with Madigan punting / treading water / standing still in the A.G. slot – had to be the least expected. Now that she’s made up her mind – making, really, a sort of "non-decision decision" – the other electoral dominoes of Illinois can start falling into place. But what it will all mean – for the various state figures involved, as well as for the fortunes of the national-level parties – remains yet to be seen. Stay tuned…and we’ll keep it covered for you here on The Stonecipher Report…
For more coverage of Illinois politics, look for my regular posts here on The Stonecipher Report. (And, for a free subscription to my twice-weekly e-mail column on politics and pop-culture, "And, in the News…" send a note to: m_l_sweeney@hotmail.com)
