Posted by: Tyler Rippeteau
Apr. 27, 2009
On Monday morning my Congresswoman, Jan Schakowsky (D - IL), sent an email to her supporters announcing that she is seriously considering a run for the U.S. Senate in Illinois.
As she said in the email, her decision to take a closer look at this possibility was based, in part, on the results of two recent polls. One poll, not surprisingly, showed that the six-term Congresswoman from Evanston, IL would beat a generic Republican in a statewide election.
The more interesting poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners, showed that Congresswoman Schakowsky might actually lead a field of three likely candidates in the Democratic Primary. Against incumbent Roland Burris and Illinois State Treasurer, Alexi Giannoulias, Schakowsky came out on top with 24% support. Giannoulias comes in a close 2nd with 22% and Burris and his $845 brings up the rear with 18%.
Conspicuously absent from the poll, however, is the name of former U.S. Commerce Secretary and brother of the mayor of Chicago, Bill Daley. Daley is rumored to be interested in the position and if he chooses to throw his hat into the ring, he would instantly shake things up with what maybe the best name recognition statewide and a massive fundraising machine at his disposal.
What may be the most important bit of information from the poll for Schakowsky, though, is the seeming lack of negative impact her husband had on the results. In 2006, Bob Creamer, Schakowsky's spouse, was convicted on charges of writing bad checks and tax evasion. While this news didn't seem to have much impact on Schakowsky's re-election campaigns that year or in 2008, the concern for the Congresswoman is that voters outside the 9th District in Illinois may not be as forgiving about her husband's legal troubles.
In all fairness, we aren't 100% sure that Lake Research pollsters managed to get information specifically regarding Mr. Creamer, but according to a polling memo "Even after hearing a strong attack on Schakowsky, the Congresswoman retains her lead." Unless that "strong attack" was fabricated, it is hard to believe it could have been anything else other than an anti-Creamer attack.
If this is the case and it turns out that the citizens of Illinois aren't terribly concerned about her husband's legal trouble, Rep. Schakowsky's road to the Senate may have fewer obstacles than originally thought. Even if Bill Daley does end up throwing his hat into the ring, it appears that the woman from Evanston has a greater upside than Alexi Giannoulias and she could end up in what will effectively become a two-way race against Daley for the Democratic nomination. The winner of that battle would likely go on to whoop Mark Kirk, or whoever ends up coming out of the GOP primary.
As a random and coincidental personal side note to this story, back when I was in junior high and Jan Schakowsky was a State Representative here in Illinois, she hosted my eighth grade class on our trip to Springfield. She was a fantastic host and while we were there she managed to get the new Attorney General of Illinois to speak to our class for about a half an hour. His name was Roland Burris.
Finally, for those of you interested, here is the text of the email that was sent to supporters:
Dear Friend,
Some weeks ago I reported to you that I was taking a serious look at running for the U.S. Senate in 2010. As part of that decision-making process, I commissioned a nationally respected polling firm, Lake Research, to conduct two separate polls to test how well I would do in a competitive election.
Early in the year, we asked voters to judge how well I would fare in a General Election race against a strong Republican contender. It was clear that Illinois voters do not want a Senator who opposed the Obama agenda. The data said I would be the likely winner.
This week we completed a poll to test how I would fare in a competitive Democratic primary. I wanted you to see the results which indicate that, while the outcome is far from conclusive, I would be the strongest contender of those who have indicated their interest so far.
The hardest part of the decision is still yet to come, however - the "Gut Check." I have a very precious seat. I am privileged to represent a marvelous district, I have ten years of seniority in the House, I am part of the leadership team, I sit on the key committees deciding our energy, health and national security policies. This is THE year during which great progress can be made. On the other hand, there would be many new and powerful opportunities serving in the United States Senate - being one of a hundred.
On Monday, June 8th, I will announce whether I will run for reelection to Congress or for the U.S. Senate in 2010.
As I weigh this decision, your opinion, as one who has been a friend and supporter, is of great interest to me. LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU THINK.
- Jan Schakowsky
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