Obama + Dean + $100 Million in June = Massive GOP Losses
Now that Barack Obama has clinched the Democratic Nomination, his campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) will begin working closely together. In fact, the Obama Campaign is already taking on some of the DNC’s usual functions.
What is exciting about this new alliance is that Howard Dean, as chair of the DNC, and Barack Obama are now on the same team. The two most groundbreaking internet fund-raisers the political world has ever seen are going to be working side-by-side with their 50-state strategy in place, which Dean employed to win back Congress for the Democrats back in 2006.
The influx of cash to Obama’s campaign is going to be incredible. Some are estimating that Obama may even bring in $100 million this month. To put that in perspective, George W. Bush’s record-breaking fund-raising effort in the 2000 election cycle brought in $303 million, and that was over a full, two-year period.
Barack Obama has already almost reached that number at this point in his campaign and we’re just now beginning the General Election. He sits at $265 million raised, nearly three times the total John McCain has raised thus far.
What will this gap in cash flow mean for the two candidates?
It means that the 50-state strategy can not only be employed effectively by Obama and the DNC, but it can also be used to force McCain into spending money where he doesn’t want to, say for example, in Wyoming, where Bush beat Kerry 69% - 29% in 2004.
Sen. McCain does not want to waste his precious dollars in a state that his predecessor won by 40-points, but the problem for the Senator from Arizona is that without any real effort so far Obama only trails McCain 53% - 40%.
Even just a million bucks or so would go a very long way to saturate the television markets of Cheyenne and the home of the University of Wyoming, Laramie. If Obama were able to take as little as 3% of McCain’s support there and add it to his column he would start to make the Republicans sweat, and they would undoubtedly have to respond with an increased effort in Wyoming of their own.
But it is not just Wyoming where Obama will attempt to make McCain and the GOP nervous.
The Obama Campaign is prepared to create headaches for the McCain Campaign in other traditionally very red states like Utah and Mississippi. And as we have discussed here in the past at The Stonecipher Report, states like Montana may even be in play for the Democrats.
While the reality may be that the Democrats have no chance to actually win the Electoral Votes from some of these states, this nation-wide, total coverage plan of Barack Obama’s is going to provide Republican Strategists with an even bigger and scarier threat than losing three to seven Electoral Votes from a random Western State or two; the potential for a Democratic landslide in The House and The Senate brought on by Obama's 50-state-strategy-coat-tails.
This potential landslide is a very real possibility and, particularly on The Senate side the Democrats would love to have a big day on November 4, 2008.
As it stands the Democrats have a 51 - 49 seat majority in The Senate. But the chair of the Senate GOP campaign committee, John Ensign has already expressed serious concerns about just holding on to a veto-proof minority.
Earlier this month, Ensign explained to the Savannah Morning News that is was absolutely essential for Georgia Republican Senator, Saxby Chambliss to hold on to his seat this fall. The reason? "With 41 votes in the U.S. Senate you can (1) block bad legislation, and (2) you can make the majority respect the minority’s rights." Ensign went on to say "If the Democrats were able to get to 60 votes - literally even if they get to 57-58 votes because they always seem to pick off a couple or three Republicans on a lot of votes - and if they win the White House...they will be able to do pretty much whatever they want."
Wow. Remember back in 2004 when some Republicans were claiming that the U.S. was about to become a one-party country for the foreseeable future? Boy we have come a long way.
With the above statements Ensign essentially lowered the bar from the level of an Olympic gold medalist to that of a limbo superstar.
Enough digression though, the point is, the Obama/Dean 50-state strategy is scaring the pants off of GOP insiders. They can sense the tidal wave that is about to hit them and instead of discussing victory strategies, they are bracing for the impact and hoping they can hang on for dear life.
Unless McCain can make some major changes in his fund raising efforts in the next few months Obama's huge money advantage is going to shake up American politics and come November the Electoral Map is going to look a lot different than it has for the past two elections. Some of the classic swing states will return, like Ohio and Michigan, but some will drop off the radar and several new states will be added to the toss-up category.
And that is where we will pick this conversation up next time. Stay tuned for a state-by-state breakdown of the new swing states.
