Obama May Turn Montana Blue

I have been saying it for months now, Barack Obama is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party.  And now that he has clinched a victory in pledged delegates the remaining contests in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana are nothing more than a formality. 

Of those three contests none appear to have a chance to play a roll in the General Election this fall; at least at first glance.  Puerto Rico can’t even vote in the General, although Hillary will probably claim it can if she wins the primary there, and South Dakota hasn’t gone Blue since 1964 when Lyndon Johnson destroyed Barry Goldwater.

On the surface Montana seems like an impossible pick-up for the Democrats as well, but it may be the one remaining contest to watch for signs of a potential General Election upset in Barack Obama’s favor come November.

A poll done by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. out of Washington D.C. taken May 19th through the 21st shows John McCain with a solid 8-point lead in Big Sky Country, 47-39. 

A closer look at the Mason-Dixon poll however reveals trouble for McCain.  For starters 14% of the Montana electorate is undecided, plus there’s a 4% margin of error, that makes the now famous “Keith Number” 18%. 

14% undecided is a huge number in one of the reddest of the red states. 

In 2000 and 2004 Bush won by 25% and 20% respectively. 

As a side note Bill Clinton was able to win The Treasure State in 1992...with the help of a whopping 26% of the vote going to Ross Perot, undoubtedly costing Bush Montana’s three Electoral Votes.

But back to the topic at hand, there should be no question as to whether or not John McCain should win in Montana on November 4th, but the Mountain West seems to be buying what Barack is selling; change.  And in order to solidify a victory in Montana, John McCain is going to have to make sure that those 14% of undecided voters don’t break towards Obama.  That is a pretty tall order considering that everywhere Obama spends time his numbers improve.

As people get to know Barack Obama they like him more and more.  Montana is no different.  So if Obama and his campaign decide to make Big Sky Country a battleground it will be.

What should be of even further concern to John McCain is that the Mason-Dixon poll left out one of Obama’s core constituencies, first time voters.

In the May 19-21 poll Mason-Dixon surveyed 625 registered voters who all said they regularly vote in Montana elections.  As we have seen time after time throughout this campaign Barack Obama does exceedingly well with first time voters. 

Sen. Obama inspires people who have never voted in their lives to get out and cast a ballot for hope and change.

So come June 3rd, when watching the returns from South Dakota and Montana, the real concern is not who will win.  The same Mason-Dixon poll mentioned above also has Sen. Obama beating Sen. Clinton on June 3rd by a 52% - 35% margin. 

On top of that, Clinton has a 29% favorable rating compared to a whopping 50% unfavorable rating.  Those numbers give her almost no room to improve.

The real number to watch next Tuesday night is not the number that determines who wins or loses, it is the turnout, particularly among young and new voters. 

If that number is higher than expected, and the percentage of young voters is higher than expected then watch out John McCain, you could be in for a surprise in Montana this November.  And that’s before we have even considered Brian Schweitzer as Obama’s running mate.

Comments

[neednewbed.com]

at least he wont turn Montana black...

[jlbraun]

Obama is in prime position to tap Brian Schweitzer (guv of Montana) as the VP. Schweitzer's strong pro-gun record would bring many pro-gun Dems (39% of the 100 million gun owners in the USA are Dems) into the fold who would otherwise be jittery of Obama's anti-gun record.

We Dems know that being anti-gun causes us to lose, lose, lose, as Bill Clinton said in 2004: "The fights I fought cost a lot...the fight for the Assault Weapons Ban cost 20 [Democrats] their seats in Congress."

[Obamaisaloser]

Hillary turns Florida Blue, And Arkansas and North Carolina and possibly West Virginia... all while keeping Ohio and Penn.

Hillary is the candidate who can win.

[Noah Callaway]

Obamaisaloser - I hate to be a thorn in the side, but if Hillary is the candidate who can win, why didn't she?

The primary season is winding down; by every metric (save, very arguably, the popular vote) Obama has bested Clinton. If Clinton was so much stronger than Obama she should have shown it during the primary season. She should have flexed that "better candidate" muscle that she apparently has; she should have trounced the upstart, rather than being surprised and bested.

She did none of these things, and it's far too-little too-late now to argue whether she would be a better general-election candidate. At this point, that argument is moot. It's purely hypothetical because he *is* for all intensive purposes the general election candidate, while she is not...

[Lolli Gordon]

LOL, I like the one about not turning Montana Black! You got that right, it'll never happen!

Lolli
www.fireme.to/udi

[An Observer]

Hillary is a candidate that lost.

She will not only continue on, she will then decide to run as an independent, just so Obama can't win.

I'm the first to state this. To the detriment of the Democrat Party. Hillary will keep on full steam. Beyond not being a nominee.

So just watch her actions, not her words.

She is totally predictable.

[Patricia]

To An Observer:
I really hope you are wrong about Hillary. But after observing her underhanded antics during this campaign, I am inclined to agree with you. She will not stop and in the process she will shatter the Democratic Party. Can she really be that selfish, spiteful and unprofessional?

[DonkeyBoy]

Obs and Patricia:

Luckily, once the nominee is selected, Hillary can't run as an independent for the same reason Ron Paul can't. Most states have 'sore loser' laws that prevent candidates who appeared one of the major primary ballots and lost cannot appear on the general election ballot.

She might continue to be a liability to the party, but she wont be running as anything but a write in.

[BadBarley]

Hey Noah-

FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES

It is not intensive purposes. That is not correct English. http://www.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/intensive.html

[Kathy]

Clinton has taken Kentucky and Obama is right there in Oregon.
The Democratic race for nomination is still very much alive – and most likely to be decided by superdelegates – as CNN points out clearly

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/20/primary.wrap/index.html

If you’re tired of waiting around for those super delegates to make a decision already, go to LobbyDelegates.com and push them to support Clinton or Obama

If you haven't done so yet, please write a message to each of your state's superdelegates at http://www.lobbydelegates.com

Obama Supporters:

Sending a note to current Obama supporters lets them know it's appreciated, sending a note to current Clinton supporters can hopefully sway them to change their vote to Obama, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Obama. It's that easy...

Clinton Supporters too …. !

It takes a moment, but what's a few minutes now worth to get Clinton in office?! Those are really worth !

Sending a note to current Clinton supporters lets them know it's appreciated, sending a note to current Obama supporters can hopefully sway them to change their vote to Clinton, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Clinton. It's that easy...

[the rick]

I hope you left wing whackos know this circus between Hussein and the Feminist isnt even going to get settled at the convention. And I LOVE it. Watching liberals argue is my second favorite pastime. A Hussein administration is Jimmy Carter's second term, and if that Feminist gets elected I cant even fathom where we're going. Good luck

[Penis enlargement exercises]

More & more people know that Blog are goods for every one where we can get more knowledge nice job keep it up !